March Madness is back! While team loyalty runs deep, for many it’s all about the office pools and bracket challenges. In the world of brackets, there are no style points or moral victories—just picking winners. And with 63 games, the odds of a perfect bracket are as high as 1 in 9.2 quintillion.*
Thankfully, the NCAA makes it easier by seeding teams—a system introduced in 1979 as a way for the NCAA to make sure that the strongest teams did not end up meeting each other too early in the tournament, which would be a threat to TV ratings and the overall fan experience. It also gives casual fans a helpful guide: picking a #1 seed over a #16 isn’t just intuitive, it’s statistically smart.
A team with a high ranking is, after all, the stronger team based upon qualitative and quantitative evaluation. They often possess more talent and better coaching than the lower-ranked teams, especially when comparing teams with a large gap in seeding. While past performance has certainly not guaranteed future success for all the high-seeded teams, it is certainly a good starting point for the average fan's tournament bracket.
I often talk with clients about a tool I use called a relative strength matrix. It’s part of the NASDAQ Dorsey Wright system, and it helps me compare many investments at once by tracking momentum—how well an investment is performing relative to others. Think of it like a March Madness bracket.
Just as NCAA teams are seeded based on past performance, my system ranks investments—stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, sectors, etc.—by strength. Top-ranked investments are like high seeds in the tournament: they’ve shown consistent, steady performance and offer a better chance of long-term success. Lower-ranked investments that begin to improve are like a 12-seed pulling off an upset. They’re interesting, but not the foundation of a winning strategy.
While there can always be potential surprises, our focus stays on the strongest performers. This is a disciplined, data-driven approach, not guesswork. I often say, “I don’t have a crystal ball,” but I do have a time-tested process based on objective data—price trends, supply and demand, and relative strength comparisons.
This isn’t a forecasting tool or a black box. It’s a way to recognize and follow real momentum—identifying what’s already working and leaning into it. Just like top seeds in the NCAA tournament, strong investments earn their ranking through results—not opinion. I try to keep your portfolio allocated to the top seeds.
* https://bracketchallenge.ncaa.com/bracket-iq
TARRIFFS & TURBULENCE
I've received several questions about the new tariffs and their potential effect on portfolios. While it’s too early to predict the full market impact, here are a few of my insights:
- A Strategic Shift Toward U.S. Investment
Some view these tariffs as a negotiation tool to encourage investment in the U.S. We’ve already seen a wave of new commitments:- Taiwan Semiconductor plans to build five U.S. factories—a $100 billion investment expected to create 40,000 construction jobs over the next four years.
- Eli Lilly has announced a $27 billion investment for four new U.S. manufacturing plants, aiming to add 3,000 high-skilled jobs and 10,000 construction roles.
- Aiming for Fairer Trade
Historically, the U.S. has faced uneven tariff treatment—for example, paying a 10% tariff to export cars to Europe, while only charging 3% in return. The new tariffs aim to create more balance and strengthen domestic manufacturing. - Consumer & Market Impact
There are concerns about higher car prices in the short term, especially for imported vehicles. That could impact consumer spending and shift demand toward U.S.-made or used cars. In the longer term, some believe this may spark innovation and retooling within U.S. automakers, potentially benefiting select sectors of the market. - Global Reactions
These moves have drawn attention from trading partners. While some countries are signaling possible retaliation, others may use this moment to renegotiate trade terms. As always, geopolitics and markets tend to find an equilibrium over time.
Throughout history, bold trade decisions have periodically disrupted global markets—but time and again, economies adapt, industries evolve, and resilience wins. While headlines may create short-term concern, we remain grounded in perspective and committed to guiding you with clarity and confidence through every market cycle.
We’re keeping an eye on how these developments unfold. Rest assured, your portfolio is actively managed with flexibility and discipline, allowing us to respond thoughtfully to policy shifts while staying focused on long-term opportunity and peace of mind.
Source: First Trust, U.S. Census Bureau. 2024 data.
WHY TRUMP’S TARIFFS MAY BE MORE CALCULATED THAN CHAOTIC
The data reveals a key advantage: the U.S. is less reliant on exports than its trade partners—giving Washington more room to maneuver.
This chart highlights a critical context often overlooked in tariff discussions: the United States is far less dependent on exports as a share of GDP than its top trading partners. With exports comprising only 11% of U.S. GDP—compared to 43% for Germany, 36% for Mexico, and 33% for Canada—our economy is structurally more resilient to disruptions in global trade.
This disparity suggests that the U.S. may have greater flexibility in applying tariff pressure without incurring the same degree ofeconomic vulnerability. In contrast, our trading partners—whose economies are more reliant on export activity—may face stronger internal pressures to come to the negotiating table.
Viewed through this lens, the current tariff rhetoric could be interpreted less as a long-term economic shift and more as a strategic bargaining tool aimed at recalibrating trade relationships, ratherthan permanently disrupting them.
QUOTE OF THE MONTH
“THE MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY FOR AN INVESTOR IS TEMPERAMENT, NOT INTELLECT.” — WARREN BUFFETT
WHY IT MATTERS:
IN A WORLD FULL OF EMOTIONAL HEADLINES, THIS REMINDER FROM BUFFETT COULDN’T BE MORE RELEVANT. PATIENCE, DISCIPLINE, AND PERSPECTIVE ARE OFTEN MORE VALUABLE THAN PREDICTION OR ANALYSIS. IT'S NOT ABOUT OUTSMARTING THE MARKET — IT'S ABOUT OUTLASTING THE PANIC.
ON MY MIND: MARKETS, MOVES & YOUR PORTFOLIO
The U.S. stock market has officially entered correction territory, with the S&P 500 down roughly 10% from its February high—its first such pullback in over a year. The Nasdaq, heavily weighted in tech, has dropped over 8% in March, while the Dow is off by about 5.2%.
Corrections like these aren’t new—in fact, we’ve seen 56 since 1929. They often serve as healthy resets in overheated areas of the market. While tariffs and political headlines may be grabbing attention, I don’t believe they’re the core issue. Rather, this correction appears to be a valuation reality check—long overdue in sectors that have run too far, too fast.
A Healthy Reset in Overvalued Areas For years, the S&P 500 has been disproportionately driven by a handful of mega-cap tech names—the so-called FANG stocks: Facebook (Meta), Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). These companies have enjoyed outsized returns, driven by low interest rates and stimulus-fueled optimism. But when a few names carry most of the market’s weight, any shift in sentiment hits hard.
With the era of “easy money” winding down and valuations stretched well above historical norms, it’s not surprising to see these names leading the pullback. This is not panic—it’s a long-term rebalancing of risk and reward.
Time to Shift Horses Since early 2023, many of my portfolios have held a strategic overweight in technology, which has served us well. But as I often say—when the winning horse tires, it’s time to find another contender. Over the past month, we’ve seen clear evidence of rotation from growth to value:
- Value stocks are leading, with the Morningstar US Value Index up 5.5% YTD, while the Growth Index is down 3.8%.
- Defensive sectors like energy and healthcare (e.g., Exxon Mobil, Eli Lilly) are showing strength.
- Investor sentiment is shifting away from high-valuation tech names toward more stable, income-generating companies. (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/global-capital-rotation-march-2025-bofa-survey-reveals-c%C3%BCneyt-tuncerbschf/)
You’ll likely see more activity and rebalancing in your portfolio as we pivot toward value-oriented sectors with stronger fundamentals and more attractive risk-reward profiles.
Staying Grounded Through the Noise Market noise is nothing new. The difference lies in how we respond. Remember, I don’t chase headlines—I focus on trends, valuations, and long-term outcomes. Trying to time the market based on short-term fear has historically been a losing strategy.
If recent headlines have you feeling uneasy, I encourage you to turn off the TV, step back from social media, and remember: It’s not about timing the market—it’s about time in the market.
We’ve been here before, and we’ll be here again. Diversification, active management, and perspective remain our best tools. As always, I’m here to help guide you with calm, clarity, and confidence.
I’d highly recommend the following video with facts that support my above stance:
https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2025/3/14/the-era-of-easy-everythingis-over